Topic #20 · Midterm Project

一杯奶茶的经济学

The Economics of a Cup of Bubble Tea

The Economics of a Cup of Bubble Tea — Make It, Then Explain the Profit Margin
「一杯奶茶的经济学」— 做出来，再解释它的利润率
课程 AI 时代的战略传播与市场素养 Course Strategic Communication & Market Literacy in the AI Era 00670532-908 min 展示 11/11 · 11/18 Present Nov 11 · Nov 18 3 人组Team of 3
全班每天都买一杯奶茶，但几乎没人算过：你付的 15 块里，茶和奶只占 4 块 5，真正贵的是房租、人工和那 8 秒的服务。更反直觉的是——卖 7 块一杯的蜜雪冰城一年赚 44.5 亿，卖 26.7 块一杯的奈雪一年亏 9.19 亿。这一杯里，藏着中国消费市场最锋利的一堂定价课。
Everyone here buys bubble tea. Almost nobody has priced it. Of the ¥15 you pay, tea and milk cost only ¥4.50 — the expensive parts are rent, labour, and eight seconds of service. Stranger still: Mixue sells at ¥7 a cup and earned ¥4.45bn, while Nayuki sells at ¥26.7 and lost ¥919m in 2024. Inside this one cup sits the sharpest pricing lesson in Chinese consumer markets.
00

一页速览：三个数字定生死

At a Glance: Three Numbers

讨论时如果只有 60 秒，就讲这三个数字。它们是整个故事的三根柱子，也直接对应评分表里 40 分的 Storytelling。
If you only have 60 seconds in the meeting, present these three numbers. They are the three pillars of the story and map directly onto the 40-point Storytelling criterion.
¥1.9
一杯 ¥15 奶茶里，加盟商最后落进口袋的钱
What the franchisee actually keeps from a ¥15 cup
占售价 12.7%，其余七成以上全是成本
12.7% of retail price; over 70% is cost
97.5%
蜜雪冰城 2024 收入中，来自「卖原料和设备给加盟商」的比例
Share of Mixue's 2024 revenue from selling ingredients & equipment to franchisees
加盟费只占 2.5% —— 它本质是供应链公司
Franchise fees only 2.5% — it is a supply-chain company
−¥9.19亿−¥919m
奈雪的茶 2024 净亏损，客单价 ¥26.7 —— 全场最贵的一杯
Nayuki's 2024 net loss — ¥919m — at ¥26.7 per order, the priciest cup in the market
营收 49.21 亿，净利率约 −18.7%
Revenue ¥4.92bn; net margin about −18.7%
这三根柱子撑起的「So What」：The "so what" these three pillars hold up:

价格从来不是原料决定的，而是成本结构和你在价值链上的位置决定的。同一杯奶茶，站在门店那一端的人赚 1.5–2 元；站在供应链那一端的人赚 17.9% 的净利率。这解释了为什么奶茶店开了又倒、倒了又开，而总部永远在赚钱。

Price is never set by ingredients. It is set by cost structure and by where you sit in the value chain. In the same cup, the storefront earns ¥1.5–2; the supply chain earns a 17.9% net margin. That is why shops open and close in endless cycles while headquarters always profits.

01

选题定位：为什么这个题能拿高分

Why This Topic Scores

题目原文是「The Economics of a Cup of Bubble Tea: Make It, Then Explain the Profit Margin」。关键词是 Make It——它要求的不只是讲，而是先做出来，再拆开。这是 20 个候选题里唯一自带「实物道具 + 数据反转」的题。
The brief reads: "Make It, Then Explain the Profit Margin." The key verb is Make It — act it out, then take it apart. Of the 20 topics, this is the only one that arrives with both a physical prop and a built-in data twist.
优势一Edge 1实物道具，天然抓注意力A physical prop that grabs the room

开场直接端一杯真奶茶上台，或现场摇一杯。全班每天见它，但从没算过它——不需要任何铺垫的最强钩子。

Open by carrying a real cup on stage, or shaking one live. Everyone sees it daily and nobody has priced it — the strongest possible hook, zero setup.

风险：道具不能变成表演。必须在 30 秒内把它变成一张图。

Risk: the prop must not become the show. Within 30 seconds it has to turn into a chart.

优势二Edge 2有真实反转，不是平铺直叙A real twist, not a flat explainer

「最便宜的赚最多、最贵的在亏钱」——一个能用审计报告证明的反直觉结论。Storytelling 那 40 分最吃的就是这种结构。

"The cheapest earns the most; the priciest loses money" — a counter-intuitive claim provable with audited filings. Exactly what the 40 storytelling points reward.

风险：反转必须由数据自己推出。一开口就说结论，张力就没了。

Risk: let the data deliver the twist. Announce it up front and the tension dies.

对照评分表：我们靠什么拿分

Mapped to the Rubric

评分项Criterion 分值Pts 我们的武器Our Weapon
Storytelling 叙事Storytelling40 三幕结构 + 开场实物钩子 + 中段财报反转 + 结尾一句话 Three acts + a physical hook + a financial twist + one closing line
Getting It Right 数据可信Getting It Right20 五家港股/美股上市公司年报 + 艾媒咨询行业口径，全部公开可查 Audited filings from five listed chains + iiMedia industry data, all publicly verifiable
Showing It 视觉Showing It10 把成本解剖图画进杯子里，用杯子本身当坐标轴，后排可读 A cost-anatomy diagram drawn inside the cup, using the cup itself as the axis — legible from the back row
Video 视频Video10 30–90 秒手持「从下单到出杯」实测，配秒表与计时字幕 A 30–90s handheld "order to counter" test with an on-screen stopwatch
Presentation 现场Presentation Quality20 三人各占一幕，各自有「一句话主张」；全程 8 分钟卡点排练 Each of the three owns one act with one claim; rehearsed to hit 8:00

为什么不是别的题：一个决定记录

Why Not Another Topic: the Decision Record

弃Cut#18 大语言模型怎么工作#18 How an LLM works

竞争最激烈的题，全班至少三组会选；而且很难做出「非专家也能感知」的实物演示，全靠动画撑。

The most crowded topic — at least three teams pick it. Hard to build a non-expert demo; everything hangs on animation.

弃Cut#11 通货膨胀#11 How inflation works

数据宏观、抽象、无实物；讲好不容易，讲平庸很容易，而且和「市场素养」的落点太宽泛。

Macro, abstract, no prop. Easy to be mediocre, and the "market literacy" takeaway gets too broad.

选Pick#20 奶茶经济学#20 Bubble tea economics

全班都消费、都熟悉、都能立刻验证；有实物、有财报、有反转、有中国故事，四项交付天然齐全。

Everyone consumes it, knows it, can verify it instantly. Prop + filings + twist + a China story — all four deliverables come naturally.

02

故事线：三幕结构，每人一幕

The Three-Act Story: One Act Per Person

总共 8 分钟，按 2 / 3.5 / 2.5 分配。评分要求三人全部开口，而且不能念稿。三幕制的最大好处：每幕只回答一个问题，谁都不会抢别人的话。
Eight minutes total, split 2 / 3.5 / 2.5. The rubric requires all three to speak and forbids reading from slides. The three-act frame keeps each person answering exactly one question.
0:00–2:00
A 同学
第 1 幕
Speaker A
Act I

第 1 幕 · 拉起问题：这杯东西到底值多少钱？

Act I · The Question: what is this thing actually worth?

"我手上这杯 15 块。你们猜，里面的茶和奶值多少钱？"
"This cup cost me ¥15. Guess how much of that is tea and milk."
  • 0:00–0:30 实物开场。端杯上台，举起来，让全班看见。不讲话三秒——这是全场唯一的静默，用来抢注意力。
  • 0:30–1:10 让全班猜。喊三个数：¥10 / ¥5 / ¥2。举手投票。**这个互动必须做**，它把观众从旁观者变成参与者，也是后面反转的情绪铺垫。
  • 1:10–1:45 揭晓 30% 这个数。一杯 ¥15 的奶茶，物料成本约 ¥4.5（30%）。注意口播要立刻补一句：「这 30% 里还含总部的加价，不是纯原料。」——这句话就是数据的严谨性。
  • 1:45–2:00 交给下一幕。「那剩下的 ¥10.5 去哪了？我队友来拆。」
  • 0:00–0:30 The prop. Walk up holding the cup, raise it, let the room see it. Say nothing for three seconds — the only silence in the talk, and it buys attention.
  • 0:30–1:10 Make them guess. Call three numbers: ¥10 / ¥5 / ¥2. Take a show of hands. Do not skip this — it converts spectators into participants and sets up the emotional payoff of the twist.
  • 1:10–1:45 Reveal 30%. Ingredients run about ¥4.5 of ¥15. Say immediately: "and that 30% already includes the head office's markup — it is not raw material cost." That one sentence is the rigour.
  • 1:45–2:00 Hand off. "So where did the other ¥10.50 go? My teammate takes it apart."
2:00–5:30
B 同学
第 2 幕 · 核心
Speaker B
Act II · Core

第 2 幕 · 拆开这杯：房租、人工、和那 8 秒

Act II · Take It Apart: rent, labour, and those eight seconds

"这杯奶茶里最贵的东西，不是茶，也不是奶，是这家店所在的那个位置。"
"The most expensive ingredient in this cup is not tea and not milk. It is where the shop stands."
  • 2:00–3:20 成本解剖图（核心视觉）。这是全场唯一必须让后排看清的图。手指从上往下走，一项一项报：物料 30%、房租 20–25%、人工 15–20%、水电与平台抽成 5–10%。加起来 70%+，剩给店主 10–15%。
  • 3:20–4:10 换算成人话。「也就是说，你花 15 块，店主赚 1.5 到 2 块。一杯奶茶的净利润，比一瓶矿泉水贵不了多少。」——这个类比是给非专业听众的翻译。
  • 4:10–4:50 引入第二层：外卖抽成。平台抽成 20–25%，比房租还高。同一个店主，做堂食和做外卖是两门不同的生意。这一点很少有人知道，是最容易引发「哦——」的反应点。
  • 4:50–5:30 抛出反转的第一个证据。「更奇怪的事在后面：卖得最便宜的，赚得最多。」然后交给 C。
  • 2:00–3:20 The cost anatomy (the centerpiece visual). The only visual that must read from the back row. Walk down it by hand: ingredients 30%, rent 20–25%, labour 15–20%, utilities + platform commission 5–10%. Over 70% in total; the owner keeps 10–15%.
  • 3:20–4:10 Translate into human terms. "You pay ¥15. The owner keeps ¥1.50 to ¥2. A cup of bubble tea nets barely more than a bottle of water." That analogy is the non-expert translation.
  • 4:10–4:50 Layer two: delivery commissions. Platforms take 20–25% — more than rent. The same owner is running two different businesses: dine-in and delivery. Few people know this; it reliably produces an "ohhh".
  • 4:50–5:30 Drop the first piece of evidence for the twist. "And here is the strange part: the cheapest cup earns the most." Hand to C.
5:30–8:00
C 同学
第 3 幕
Speaker C
Act III

第 3 幕 · 反转与 So What：谁在这场游戏里真的赚钱

Act III · The Twist and the So What: who actually wins

"卖 7 块的赚 44.5 亿，卖 26.7 块的亏 9.19 亿。差别不在茶里，在你站在链条的哪一端。"
"Sell at ¥7 and earn ¥4.45bn. Sell at ¥26.7 and lose ¥919m. The difference is not in the tea. It is which end of the chain you stand on."
  • 5:30–6:30 三家公司同框对比。蜜雪：营收 248.3 亿，净利 44.5 亿，净利率 17.9%。霸王茶姬：124.05 亿，25.15 亿，20.3%。奈雪：49.21 亿，−9.19 亿。三个数字并排，不需要解释，观众自己会得出答案。
  • 6:30–7:10 揭示商业模式的差别。蜜雪 97.5% 的收入来自卖给加盟商的原料与设备——它赚的是供应链的钱，不承担门店客流风险。奈雪 84.5% 收入来自自营门店——它赚的是门店的钱，每一分房租和人工都自己扛。这才是真正的分水岭。
  • 7:10–7:40 So What（必须背下来，不看稿）。"So the next time you pay ¥15 for a cup of tea, remember: you are not buying tea. You are buying a location, eight seconds of somebody's hands, and a bet that this shop will still be here next month."
  • 7:40–8:00 收尾 + 交信息图。一句话留白，然后说「这是给大家的一页纸」，把信息图举起来。结束，不要拖。
  • 5:30–6:30 Three companies, one frame. Mixue: revenue ¥24.83bn, net profit ¥4.45bn, margin 17.9%. Chagee: ¥12.41bn, ¥2.52bn, 20.3%. Nayuki: ¥4.92bn, −¥919m. Side by side, no explanation needed — the audience draws the conclusion themselves.
  • 6:30–7:10 Reveal the model gap. 97.5% of Mixue's revenue comes from selling ingredients and equipment to franchisees — it earns from the supply chain and carries no store traffic risk. 84.5% of Nayuki's revenue comes from company-owned stores — it earns from the storefront and eats every yuan of rent and labour. That is the real dividing line.
  • 7:10–7:40 The so-what (memorise it, no notes). "So the next time you pay ¥15 for a cup of tea, remember: you are not buying tea. You are buying a location, eight seconds of somebody's hands, and a bet that this shop will still be here next month."
  • 7:40–8:00 Close and hand over the infographic. Hold the silence, then say "here is the one-pager" and raise it. Stop. Do not overrun.
三条硬纪律（关系到 20 分的现场表现）：Three hard rules (these decide the 20 presentation points):
  • 不许念稿。评分表写得很直白 "No reading from slides"。每人只允许手上拿一张卡片，卡片上只有 5 个关键词。
  • 不许超时。8 分钟是硬上限。排练时用秒表，卡到 7:40 才算过。
  • 交接要设计。三幕之间不要出现「下面由我队友讲」这种断裂，要用一句话把问题递过去（见每幕最后一条）。
  • No reading. The rubric says it plainly: "No reading from slides." Each speaker holds one card with five keywords. Nothing else.
  • No overrun. Eight minutes is a hard ceiling. Rehearse with a stopwatch; 7:40 is the pass mark.
  • Design the handoffs. No "now my teammate will speak." Hand over a question instead — see the last bullet of each act.
03

核心视觉：把成本画进杯子里

The Centerpiece: Draw the Cost Inside the Cup

题目要求「one chart, infographic, diagram, or demonstration that is the spine of your story」。我们的方案不讲「一张图表」，而是把杯子本身变成图表——一杯 500ml 的奶茶，按比例注满四层颜色，从杯底往杯口读。这是全场唯一不需要解释就能懂的视觉。
The brief demands "one chart, infographic, diagram, or demonstration that is the spine of your story." Our answer is not a chart about a cup — it is the cup as the chart. A 500ml cup filled in four coloured layers, read from bottom to top. The only visual in the talk that needs no explanation.
一杯 ¥15 奶茶的成本解剖Cost Anatomy of a ¥15 Cup 按 500ml 容量等比缩放Layers scaled to a 500ml cup 物料 · 30%Ingredients · 30% ≈ ¥4.50 · 茶、奶、糖、小料、杯材≈ ¥4.50 · tea, dairy, sugar, toppings, cup 含总部加价，非纯原料成本Includes HQ markup — not raw-material cost 房租 · 20–25%Rent · 20–25% ≈ ¥3.40 · 核心商圈一平米一个月就是一克金子≈ ¥3.40 · a prime corner costs its weight in gold 人工 · 15–20%Labour · 15–20% ≈ ¥2.60 · 高峰期 4 人两班倒≈ ¥2.60 · 4 staff across two shifts at peak 水电 + 平台抽成 · 5–10%Utilities + platform · 5–10% ≈ ¥1.20 · 外卖抽成可高达 20–25%≈ ¥1.20 · delivery fees alone can reach 20–25% 店主净利 · 10–15%Owner's net · 10–15% ≈ ¥1.90 · 这一杯真正落进口袋的钱≈ ¥1.90 · what actually lands in the owner's pocket 数据：新茶饮行业通用成本结构估算（售价 ¥15 档）Source: industry-wide cost-structure estimate at a ¥15 price point 物料 30% / 房租 20–25% / 人工 15–20% / 水电及平台 5–10% / 净利 10–15%ingredients 30% / rent 20–25% / labour 15–20% / utilities & platform 5–10% / net 10–15%
核心视觉方案 · 杯形堆叠图。 Centerpiece concept · the cup-shaped stacked bar. 为什么它比普通饼图强：① 隐喻即图表——容器就是被测对象，观众不需要读图例；② 方向感——从杯底（店主净利）读到杯口（原料），天然是一个「钱往上走、利润被挤在底下」的叙事；③ 后排可读——五条色带 + 五行大字号标签，最远一排也能分辨；④ 可实物化——真能在台上用一杯分层饮料演示，视频里也能拍。 Why it beats a pie chart: ① the metaphor is the chart — the container is the object measured, so no legend is needed; ② direction — reading bottom (owner profit) to top (ingredients) narrates money rising while profit gets squeezed at the base; ③ back-row legible — five bands with five large labels; ④ physically realisable — you can literally layer a drink on stage, and film it for the video.
A做法一：PPT 全屏版（必做）Option A: full-screen slide (required)

上图为矢量稿，直接按 16:9 重排即可。字号底线：标签 ≥ 28pt，数字 ≥ 40pt。全图只保留五行标签，不放任何其他文字。

The vector above just needs re-laying out to 16:9. Minimum type: labels ≥ 28pt, numbers ≥ 40pt. Five labels only — no other text on the slide.

B做法二：实物分层杯（加分项）Option B: a real layered cup (bonus)

买一杯透明杯，用蜂蜜 / 可可 / 牛奶 / 抹茶 / 糖浆做五层，颜色与 PPT 一致。举起实物，同时 PPT 出现同构图——**图上和手上的东西是同一个**，这一个瞬间能把 10 分视觉分打成满分。

Use a clear cup with five layers (honey, cocoa, milk, matcha, syrup) colour-matched to the slide. Raise the cup the moment the slide appears — the chart and the object are the same thing. That single beat can max out the 10 visual points.

现场执行提醒：On-stage note: 分层饮料必须提前一小时做好并冷藏，糖浆层要在最下（密度最大）。上台前在杯身贴一条细胶带做液面基准线。别现场调，一定会糊。 Layer the drink an hour ahead and chill it; the densest syrup goes at the bottom. Tape a thin guide line on the cup for the fill mark. Never layer it live — it will mud.
04

数据弹药库：全部可公开核查

Data Arsenal: All Publicly Verifiable

这一节是 20 分的「Getting It Right」。原则只有一条：每个数字都要能追到年报或官方统计，不用自媒体估算（除了明确标注为「行业估算」的成本结构）。讨论时谁负责哪张表，当场认领。
This section is the 20 "Getting It Right" points. One rule: every number must trace to an annual report or official statistic — no self-media estimates, except where explicitly labelled "industry estimate." Claim a table in the meeting.

表 1 · 五家上市公司 2024 全年业绩

Table 1 · Five Listed Chains, FY2024

公司Company 模式Model 营收Revenue 净利润Net profit 净利率Net margin 门店Stores
蜜雪集团Mixue Group
2097.HK		 加盟 + 供应链Franchise + supply chain ¥248.29亿¥24.8bn¥44.54亿¥4.5bn17.9%46,479
霸王茶姬Chagee
CHA.O		 加盟为主Franchise-led ¥124.05亿¥12.4bn¥25.15亿¥2.5bn20.3%6,440
古茗Guming
1364.HK		 加盟Franchise ¥87.91亿¥8.8bn¥14.93亿¥1.5bn17.0%9,914
茶百道ChaPanda
2555.HK		 加盟Franchise ¥49.18亿¥4.9bn
−13.8%		 ¥4.72亿¥472m
−58.6%		 9.6%约 7,800~7,800
奈雪的茶Nayuki
2150.HK		 自营为主Company-owned ¥49.21亿¥4.9bn
−4.7%		 −¥9.19亿¥919m−18.7%1,798
来源：各公司 2024 年度业绩公告 / 招股书。蜜雪 = 蜜雪集团 2024 年度业绩公告（2025-03-26）；霸王茶姬 = 招股书（2025-03-26 递交 SEC）；古茗、茶百道、奈雪 = 各自 2024 年度业绩公告。奈雪门店数含直营 1,453 + 加盟 345。
Sources: 2024 annual results announcements / prospectus for each company. Mixue: FY2024 results (26 Mar 2025). Chagee: SEC prospectus filed 26 Mar 2025. Guming, ChaPanda, Nayuki: respective FY2024 results. Nayuki store count = 1,453 company-owned + 345 franchised.
这张表最重要的一句话（说给评委听的严谨性）：The one caveat that must be said out loud: 蜜雪/霸王/古茗的净利率是 总部口径（卖给加盟商赚的钱），奈雪是 门店口径（自己开店赚的钱）。两者不同口径——而这恰恰就是论点本身：奈雪必须自己扛下每一分房租和人工，蜜雪不用。这不是拿苹果比橘子，这是在证明苹果和橘子长在不同的树上。 Mixue / Chagee / Guming margins are head-office level (earnings from selling to franchisees); Nayuki's is store level (earnings from running its own shops). The two are different by construction — and that is precisely the argument: Nayuki must absorb every yuan of rent and labour; Mixue does not. This is not apples-to-oranges; it is proof that apples and oranges grow on different trees.

表 2 · 2025 上半年：分化在加剧，不是在收敛

Table 2 · H1 2025: the Divergence Widens

公司Company 营收Revenue 同比YoY 净利润Net profit 同比YoY
蜜雪集团Mixue¥148.75亿¥14.9bn+39.3%¥27.20亿¥2.7bn+44.1%
霸王茶姬Chagee¥67.25亿¥6.7bn+超两成+20%+¥7.13亿¥713m—
古茗Guming¥56.63亿¥5.7bn+41.2%¥16.25亿¥1.6bn+121.5%
茶百道ChaPanda¥25.00亿¥2.5bn—¥3.26亿¥326m—
沪上阿姨Auntea Jenny¥18.18亿¥1.8bn—¥2.03亿¥203m—
奈雪的茶Nayuki¥21.78亿¥2.2bn—−¥1.17亿¥117m同比减亏Loss narrowed
来源：六家公司 2025 年中期业绩公告。上半年六家合计营收超 ¥330 亿、净利润超 ¥50 亿。蜜雪截至 2025-06-30 全球门店 53,014 家，一年净增 9,796 家。
Source: H1 2025 interim results for all six. Combined H1 revenue over ¥33bn, combined net profit over ¥5bn. Mixue reached 53,014 stores globally by 30 Jun 2025 — nearly 10,000 net additions in twelve months.

表 3 · 单杯经济学：一杯 ¥15 的钱去哪了

Table 3 · Unit Economics: Where ¥15 Goes

成本项Cost item 占售价% of price 每杯金额Per cup 为什么是这个数Why this number
物料Ingredients30%¥4.50 茶、奶基底、糖、小料、杯盖吸管，从总部统一采购，已含总部加价 Tea, dairy base, sugar, toppings, cup and lid — bought from HQ, so it already includes HQ markup
房租Rent20–25%¥3.00–3.75 高度依赖客流，必须抢临街旺铺或商场点位；位置越好租金越贵 Traffic-dependent, so prime street frontage or mall spots are mandatory; better location, higher rent
人工Labour15–20%¥2.25–3.00 现制现摇，无法前置；高峰期 4–8 人两班倒，工资是固定支出 Made to order, cannot be pre-made; 4–8 staff on two shifts at peak — wages are a fixed cost
水电 + 平台抽成Utilities + platform5–10%¥0.75–1.50 制冰机与冷柜高耗能；外卖平台抽成 20–25%，可单项超过房租 Ice machines and chillers draw heavy power; delivery platforms take 20–25% — on its own, more than rent
店主净利Owner's net10–15%¥1.50–2.25 扣完全部成本后真正落到加盟商口袋的钱。经营得好是 ¥2，普通是 ¥1.5 What actually reaches the franchisee after everything. ¥2 on a well-run store, ¥1.50 on an average one
口径说明：此表为行业通用成本结构估算（非某一家公司的审计数据），售价按 ¥15 档。用于解释结构，不用于指认某公司。每家实际占比因城市、租金、外卖比例差异很大。这一点必须在口播中说明。
Note on method: this is an industry-wide cost-structure estimate, not audited data from any single company, benchmarked at a ¥15 price point. It is used to explain structure, not to accuse any company. Actual shares vary widely by city, rent, and delivery mix. This caveat must be said out loud.

图 · 净利率对比：卖得最便宜的，赚得最多

Chart · Net Margin: the Cheapest Cup Earns the Most

2024 年净利率对比Net Margin, FY2024 单位：% · 零轴以上为盈利，以下为亏损Unit: % · above zero is profit, below is loss 0 10%20% 30%40% 10% −10% 霸王茶姬Chagee 20.3% 蜜雪冰城Mixue 17.9% 古茗Guming 17.0% 茶百道ChaPanda 9.6% 奈雪的茶Nayuki −18.7% 总部口径HQ-level 门店口径Store-level
讲这张图的一句话：The one line for this chart: 右边四家都是「把货卖给店主」的生意，左边这家是「自己当店主」的生意。差距 38.9 个百分点，不在茶里。 The four on the right sell goods to shopkeepers. The one on the left is the shopkeeper. A 38.9-point spread, and none of it is in the tea.

表 4 · 三种赚钱方式：谁在承担客流风险

Table 4 · Three Ways to Make Money: Who Carries Traffic Risk

模式Model 收入来源Revenue source 承担客流风险的人Who bears traffic risk 代表Example
供应链型Supply-chain 卖原料、卖设备给加盟商；加盟费只占收入 2.5% Sells ingredients and equipment to franchisees; franchise fees are only 2.5% of revenue 加盟商。总部卖一单赚一单，店关了他也赚过了 The franchisee. HQ earns on every shipment; if the shop closes, it already got paid 蜜雪冰城Mixue
超级单品型Super-SKU 91% 的 GMV 来自「原叶鲜奶茶」一个品类，库存周转 5.3 天，物流成本不到 GMV 的 1% 91% of GMV from one category (tea latte); 5.3-day inventory turns; logistics under 1% of GMV 部分转嫁给加盟商，靠极简供应链把风险压到最低 Partly shifted to franchisees; an ultra-simple supply chain minimises exposure 霸王茶姬Chagee
自营门店型Company-owned 84.5% 收入来自自己开的店，每一笔订单的房租人工都自己付 84.5% of revenue from own stores; pays rent and wages on every single order 自己。客流一跌，立刻变成亏损 Itself. Traffic dips, loss appears immediately 奈雪的茶Nayuki
来源：蜜雪「2024 前三季度商品与设备收入 182.2 亿，占比 97.6%」（招股书口径）；霸王茶姬招股书（91% GMV 来自 Tea Latte，库存周转 5.3 天，物流 <1% GMV）；奈雪 2024 年报（直营门店营收 41.58 亿，占比 84.5%）。
Sources: Mixue — goods & equipment revenue ¥18.22bn, 97.6% of total (prospectus basis); Chagee prospectus — 91% of GMV from tea latte, 5.3-day turns, logistics <1% of GMV; Nayuki FY2024 — company-owned store revenue ¥4.158bn, 84.5% of total.

表 5 · 价格带战争：10–15 元成了主战场

Table 5 · The Price-Band War: ¥10–15 Is Now the Front Line

价格带Price band 代表Players 趋势Trend
¥7 左右~¥7蜜雪冰城（人均消费 ¥7.27）Mixue (average ticket ¥7.27) 逆势增长，2025 上半年净利 +44.1%Growing against the cycle — H1 2025 net profit +44.1%
¥10–15茶百道、古茗、沪上阿姨等ChaPanda, Guming, Auntea Jenny 已成市场主流；这一带拼的是供应链效率，不是品牌调性Now the mainstream; this band competes on supply-chain efficiency, not brand cachet
¥16–20霸王茶姬（单杯约 ¥20.4）Chagee (about ¥20.4 per cup) 活得最好的一家，靠单一爆品 + 极简供应链守住The healthiest of them, defended by one hero SKU and a minimal supply chain
¥25 以上¥25+奈雪的茶（客单价 ¥26.7）Nayuki (¥26.7 per order) 占比持续下滑；客单价从 ¥29.6 降到 ¥26.7，日均订单从 344 降到 270Share in continuous decline; ticket ¥29.6 → ¥26.7, daily orders 344 → 270
来源：华安证券研报（高端价格带占比持续下滑，¥10–15 成主流）；蜜雪人均消费 ¥7.27；霸王茶姬单杯价由 2024 单店月均 GMV ¥51.2 万 ÷ 月均 25,099 杯推算 ≈ ¥20.4；奈雪 2024 年报客单价与订单量。
Sources: Hua'an Securities research (high-end share declining, ¥10–15 now mainstream); Mixue average ticket ¥7.27; Chagee per-cup derived as ¥512k monthly GMV ÷ 25,099 monthly cups ≈ ¥20.4; Nayuki FY2024 ticket and order volume.
05

三人分工：不只分台词，要分交付物

Roles: Split the Deliverables, Not Just the Lines

三人项目最容易死在一个地方：台词分了，活儿没分。所以这里按「四项交付」切，一人主责一项，再交叉复核。讨论时就按这张表认领。
Group projects die in one predictable place: lines get split, work does not. So split by the four deliverables — one owner each, then cross-check. Claim rows in the meeting using this table.
角色Role 主责交付物Owns 上台讲什么Speaks about 必须准备好的东西Must bring
A
开场 + 道具Opening + props		 视频 30–90 秒（10 分）+ 开场道具 The 30–90s video (10 pts) + the opening prop 第 1 幕：抛出问题，让全班猜价格 Act I: pose the question, make the room guess 手机拍摄脚本、秒表、真奶茶一杯、备用吸管；剪辑成片并提前嵌入 PPT Shot script, stopwatch, one real cup, spare straws; edited clip embedded in the deck in advance
B
核心视觉The centerpiece		 核心视觉（10 分）+ 成本拆解全部数据 The centerpiece visual (10 pts) + all cost data 第 2 幕：拆解 ¥15 的五层结构 Act II: dismantle the ¥15 into five layers 成本解剖图（PPT 版 + 实物分层杯）、成本结构来源说明卡 Cost anatomy (slide version + physical layered cup), source card for the cost structure
C
财报 + 收尾Financials + close		 一页信息图（讲师当场收）+ 全部财报数据 The one-page infographic (collected on the spot) + all financial data 第 3 幕：财报反转 + So What Act III: the financial twist + the so what 五家财报核对表（打印一份核对用）、信息图 8 份打印件、So What 那句话背到条件反射 Printed five-company fact-check sheet, 8 copies of the infographic, and the so-what line drilled to reflex

交叉复核：谁查谁的错

Cross-Checks: Who Audits Whom

A 查 CA checks C财报数字Financials

A 对照年报原文逐个核对 C 要念的每一个数字，特别是亿元 / 十亿元单位和同比方向。念错一位数，20 分就没了。

A checks every figure C plans to say against the original filings — especially units (hundred-million vs billion) and direction of change. One wrong digit costs the 20 points.

C 查 BC checks B成本口径Cost methodology

C 负责确认 B 在台上说了「这是行业估算、不是某一家公司的审计数据」。缺这句，严谨性就塌一半。

C confirms B says on stage: "this is an industry estimate, not audited data from one company." Skip that sentence and the rigour collapses.

B 查 AB checks A图片与视频可用性Media readiness

B 负责在教室那台电脑上试播视频、试投 PPT。最常见的翻车是「视频在我电脑能放，在教室放不出来」。

B tests the video and the deck on the classroom machine. The classic failure: "it plays on my laptop but not in the room."

关于外国队友（如果组内有）：If there is an international teammate: 建议把第 3 幕（收尾 + So What）交给他/她——英语母语者在「一句话记住」这个环节优势最大，而这恰好是叙事 40 分的落点。同时本文件已做中英双语切换，讨论时直接切语言即可，不用另做一份。 Give Act III (the close + so-what) to the native English speaker — that is where a native voice pays off most, and it is exactly where the 40 storytelling points land. This document already has a language toggle, so no second version is needed.
06

视频方案：30–90 秒，三个备选

Video: 30–90 Seconds, Three Options

评分要求原文：「30–90 seconds that adds something the slides cannot.」所以视频不能是「把 PPT 念一遍」。它必须提供只有视频能给的东西：时间、动作、真实的人、真实的声音。三个方案按拍摄难度排序，今天讨论时选一个。
The brief says: "30–90 seconds that adds something the slides cannot." So the video cannot be a narrated deck. It must deliver what only video can: time, motion, a real person, a real sound. Three options, ordered by shooting difficulty — pick one today.
01「8 秒钟」· 从下单到出杯的实测"Eight Seconds" — order to counter, timed推荐 · 最容易执行Recommended · easiest

核心思路：用秒表量出「一杯奶茶从付钱到拿到手」到底花多少秒，再把这几秒换算成人工成本。它把抽象的人工成本 15–20% 变成观众亲眼看过的 8 秒钟——这是 PPT 做不到的。

Idea: time a real order from payment to handover, then convert those seconds into labour cost. It turns the abstract "labour is 15–20%" into eight seconds the audience personally watched. A slide cannot do this.

0:00–0:08固定机位，柜台正面。手机横屏架在桌上。画面里只有计时器和一个排队的人。Locked-off wide shot of the counter. Phone in landscape. Frame: a stopwatch and one customer in line.
0:08–0:30时间加速（×4）。点单、付款、店员转身、取杯、封口、插吸管、递出。真实环境音保留（摇冰声、封口机"咔"一声）。Speed up ×4: order, pay, turn, grab cup, seal, straw, hand over. Keep real ambient sound — ice shaking, the sealer's clack.
0:30–0:45秒表定格：37 秒（实测值，按真实拍摄填写）。字幕："37 seconds of one person's hands. ¥2.60 of labour."Freeze on the stopwatch: 37s (use your real measured value). Caption: "37 seconds of one person's hands. ¥2.60 of labour."
0:45–1:00镜头下摇到柜台后的房租海报 / 商圈人流，字幕："And this address costs more than the tea." 黑场收。Tilt down to a rent sign or passing foot traffic. Caption: "And this address costs more than the tea." Cut to black.

为什么赢：零成本、可当天拍完、数据是我们自己测的（原创性满分）、而且天然和 B 的「8 秒服务」叙事咬合。

Why it wins: zero budget, shootable today, the data is our own measurement (maximum originality), and it meshes perfectly with B's "eight seconds of service" line.

02「同一杯，三个价格」· 三家店并置"One Drink, Three Prices" — three shops side by side中等难度Medium effort

核心思路：在清华周边（或任何一个商圈）买到三杯同类型的奶茶——蜜雪、中端一家、奈雪——依次摆在同一张桌上，用同一个俯拍机位拍。价格标签贴上去，让观众自己看价格差。

Idea: buy three comparable drinks near campus — Mixue, one mid-tier, one Nayuki — line them up on one table, shoot from one overhead angle. Tape price tags on. Let the audience see the spread themselves.

0:00–0:10三只手依次入画，放下三个杯子，出声。Three hands enter frame one by one, set down three cups. Audible thuds.
0:10–0:35俯拍平移，镜头依次扫过杯上的价签，字幕同步打出价格。Overhead pan across the price tags; captions sync the prices.
0:35–0:55切到三张财报截图（同一比例尺的净利率柱），快速叠在三个杯子上方。Cut to three filing screenshots (margin bars on one scale), overlaid above each cup.
0:55–1:10最后一个镜头：三杯并排，字幕 "Same drink. Different business model."Final shot: three cups abreast. Caption: "Same drink. Different business model."

风险：必须保证三杯是可比的品类（都是原味奶茶或都是柠檬茶），否则会被质疑「偷换变量」。成本约 ¥50，需跑三家店。

Risk: the three must be a comparable category (all plain milk tea, or all lemon tea), or you get called out for switching variables. About ¥50 and three shops.

03「自己摇一杯」· 手机俯拍制作全过程"Shake It Yourself" — overhead process shot最贴合题目「Make It」Closest to "Make It"

核心思路：按题目字面要求「Make It」，自己在宿舍/厨房做一杯，全程俯拍，速度 ×8。最后把每一步的物料成本打在画面上，加起来等于 ¥2 左右——和店里 ¥15 形成对比。

Idea: take "Make It" literally. Build one cup yourself, overhead, sped up ×8. Caption the ingredient cost at each step; they sum to about ¥2 — set against the ¥15 in-store price.

0:00–0:25俯拍：烧水、泡茶、量糖、倒奶、煮珍珠（可用现成）、装杯、封口。Overhead: boil, steep, measure sugar, pour milk, add pearls, cup it, seal it.
0:25–0:45每加入一种原料，画面角上累加成本：茶 ¥0.40 → 奶 ¥1.20 → 糖 ¥0.15 → 珍珠 ¥0.30 = ¥2.05。A running cost counter in the corner with each addition: tea ¥0.40 → milk ¥1.20 → sugar ¥0.15 → pearls ¥0.30 = ¥2.05.
0:45–1:00举起成品，切到店里买的同款，字幕："¥2.05 to make. ¥15 to buy. The other ¥12.95 is not in this cup."Raise the finished cup, cut to a store-bought one. Caption: "¥2.05 to make. ¥15 to buy. The other ¥12.95 is not in this cup."

为什么最强：它直接回应题目里的 "Make It"，而且「自己做只要 2 块」这个反差比任何图表都扎人。风险是需要真的做一杯，且要注意卫生与画面整洁。

Why it is strongest: it answers "Make It" head-on, and "¥2.05 to make it myself" lands harder than any chart. Risk: you actually have to make one, cleanly and safely.

三条视频铁律：Three video rules:
  • 横屏、1080p、别用竖屏。投影是 16:9，竖屏会两侧留黑，视觉分直接掉。
  • 字幕必须大。后排同学 + 非母语听众都要靠字幕。字号不小于屏幕高度的 1/18。
  • 提前嵌进 PPT，不要现场切播放器。切播放器 = 黑屏等待 = 冷场。用 PPT 的「插入视频」并设为自动播放。
  • Landscape, 1080p, never vertical. The projector is 16:9; vertical means black bars and lost visual points.
  • Captions must be large. Back row plus non-native listeners depend on them — no smaller than 1/18 of screen height.
  • Embed it in the deck; never launch a player live. A player switch means black screen and a dead room. Use "Insert Video" set to play automatically.
07

一页信息图：讲师当场收走的那张纸

The One-Page Infographic: Collected on the Spot

要求是「Handed in immediately after the presentation」，而且它算在 Showing It 那 10 分里。所以它必须独立可读——讲师事后只看这张纸也要能复述你的故事。下面是版式方案，A4 竖版，六个区块。
It is "handed in immediately after the presentation" and counts inside the 10 Showing It points. So it must be standalone readable — the instructor should be able to retell your story from that sheet alone. Layout below: A4 portrait, six blocks.
一杯奶茶的经济学The Economics of a Cup of Bubble Tea The Economics of a Cup of Bubble TeaMake It, Then Explain the Profit Margin Strategic Communication & Market Literacy in the AI Era · 00670532-90 ① 标题区① Header ② 三个数字② Three numbers ¥4.50 of ¥15 is ingredients 物料成本 · 30%ingredients, 30% of price 97.5% of Mixue's revenue = 来自卖货给加盟商selling to franchisees −¥919m Nayuki 2024 net loss 客单价 ¥26.7，全场最贵at ¥26.7 — priciest ticket ③ 核心图（占版面最大）③ Centerpiece (largest block) 物料 · 30% · ¥4.50Ingredients · 30% · ¥4.50 房租 · 20–25% · ¥3.40Rent · 20–25% · ¥3.40 人工 · 15–20% · ¥2.60Labour · 15–20% · ¥2.60 水电与平台 · 5–10%Utilities + platform · 5–10% 店主净利 · 10–15% · ¥1.90Owner's net · 10–15% · ¥1.90 SO WHAT 价格由成本结构和你在价值链上的位置决定——Price is set by cost structure and by where you sit in the value chain — 不是由杯子里装了什么决定的。not by what is in the cup. ④ 净利率对比④ Margin comparison 20.3% Chagee 17.9% Mixue 17.0% Guming 9.6% ChaPanda −18.7% Nayuki 总部口径 /HQ-level / 门店口径store-level Sources: Mixue (2097.HK) FY2024 results; Chagee (CHA.O) SEC prospectus 2025-03; Nayuki (2150.HK) FY2024; Guming (1364.HK); ChaPanda (2555.HK). Cost structure: industry-wide estimate at ¥15 price point, not company-audited data. ⑤ 来源 · ⑥ 团队署名⑤ Sources · ⑥ Team
版式要点：Layout notes: ① 标题区必须有课程名与题目编号，讲师要归档；② 三个数字是给「只扫一眼」的人准备的；③ 杯子图占版面最大，它是唯一必须让人记住的图像；④ 小柱图提供可核查的对照；⑤ 来源必须出现在纸上，这是 20 分的证据链；⑥ 右下角放三位成员姓名与日期。 ① The header must carry the course and topic number — the instructor files it; ② the three numbers serve anyone who only glances; ③ the cup diagram gets the most space, because it is the one image they must remember; ④ the mini bar chart supplies the verifiable comparison; ⑤ sources must appear on paper — that is the 20-point evidence chain; ⑥ three names and the date, bottom right.
格式FormatA4 竖版，彩色打印 8 份A4 portrait, 8 colour copies

讲师 1 份 + 自留 3 份 + 备用 4 份（防同学传阅、防打印机出错）。提前一天打好，别指望教室打印机。

One for the instructor, three to keep, four spares (for pass-around and printer failures). Print the day before — never rely on the classroom printer.

陷阱Trap别把 PPT 缩印成这一页Do not shrink the deck onto one page

最常见的偷懒做法是把 8 张幻灯片缩印成一页——字会小到不可读，视觉分归零。这一页必须单独排版，按纸的逻辑重排，不是按屏幕的逻辑。

The lazy move is shrinking eight slides onto one sheet — the type becomes unreadable and the visual points vanish. This page must be laid out separately, for paper, not for a screen.

08

今日议程：45 分钟把该定的都定掉

Today's Agenda: Settle Everything in 45 Minutes

第一次讨论最容易变成「大家聊得很开心但什么也没定」。所以按时间块推进，每一块必须有产出物，没有产出物就不许进下一块。
The first meeting usually becomes "we had a great chat and decided nothing." So move in time blocks, and every block must produce an artefact. No artefact, no moving on.
0–5
对齐题目与评分表
Align on the brief and the rubric
把本文件第 00、01 节投出来给大家看。重点讲清两件事：四项交付（8 分钟展示 / 1 个核心视觉 / 30–90 秒视频 / 1 页信息图），以及叙事占 40 分这件事。
产出：三个人都说得出现在总分构成。
Show sections 00 and 01. Two things must land: the four deliverables (8-minute talk / one centerpiece visual / 30–90s video / one-page infographic), and that storytelling alone is 40 points.
Artefact: all three can recite the point breakdown.
5–15
确认选题已占位（最紧急的一件事）
Confirm the topic is reserved (most urgent)
题目规则是先报先得。如果还没报，这 10 分钟就用来完成报名，别拖到讨论结束。
产出：截图或邮件证明 #20 已被我们锁定。
Topics are first-come, first-served. If it is not reserved yet, spend these ten minutes doing it — do not leave it to the end.
Artefact: a screenshot or email proving #20 is ours.
15–25
过三幕故事线，认领角色
Walk the three acts, claim roles
把第 02 节念一遍，尤其是每幕的「交接句」。然后按第 05 节的表认领：谁拍视频、谁做核心视觉、谁做信息图。
产出：一张写上三个人名字的分工表（拍照存档）。
Read section 02 aloud, especially the handoff lines. Then claim rows from section 05: who shoots, who builds the visual, who builds the infographic.
Artefact: a roles sheet with three names on it (photograph it).
25–35
定视频方案
Pick the video
三个方案里选一个，并且当场定下拍摄时间和地点。这一项最容易烂尾，因为「改天再拍」永远等于不拍。
产出：具体的日期、时间、地点、谁带设备。
Choose one of three, and fix the shoot date and place on the spot. This is the item most likely to rot, because "we'll shoot it later" means never.
Artefact: a specific date, time, place, and who brings the phone.
35–42
核一遍数据，划掉不可用的
Verify the data, cut what fails
逐条过第 04 节的五张表，任何人觉得某个数字有问题就当场标红。同时把第 10 节的「数据红旗」念一遍。
产出：一份确认可用的数字清单（就是上台能念的那些）。
Go row by row through section 04's five tables; anything doubtful gets flagged red on the spot. Then read the red-flags list in section 10.
Artefact: a confirmed list of numbers you are allowed to say out loud.
42–45
定下一次会议与截止线
Set the next meeting and the deadlines
照第 11 节的时间倒推，填上具体日期。写完就散，不要拖。
产出：下次开会时间 + 三个人的第一个截止日期。
Fill in real dates from the timeline in section 11. Then end the meeting.
Artefact: next meeting time plus a first deadline for each of the three.
一句话提醒：One reminder: 第一次讨论的目标不是「想得很完善」，而是把不可逆的事先定死——占位、分工、拍摄日。这三件事定了，后面再怎么改都只是细节。 The goal of meeting one is not "thinking it through." It is locking the irreversible decisions: the reservation, the roles, the shoot day. Lock those three and everything else is just detail.
09

待决议清单：今天必须拍板的事

Decisions Needed: Settle These Today

勾掉一项就等于定了一件事。没勾完不要散会。页面会自动记住勾选状态，刷新不丢。
Each tick closes a decision. Do not adjourn with boxes open. Your ticks are saved automatically and survive a refresh.

必须今天定（不定就卡住）

Must Decide Today (blocks everything)

应该在今天定（不定会拖到后期翻车）

Should Decide Today (or it bites later)

10

数据红旗：这些坑必须提前知道

Data Red Flags: Know the Traps First

这一节是写给自己人看的，不上 PPT。但如果被老师或同学问到，必须答得出来——答不出来比不知道更扣分。
This section is internal; it never goes on a slide. But if the instructor or a classmate asks, you must be able to answer — not answering costs more than not knowing.
红旗 1Flag 1市场规模的口径至少有三个版本At least three versions of "market size"

艾媒咨询：¥3,547.2 亿（新式茶饮，增速 6.4%）；中商产业研究院：¥3,127 亿（现制茶饮，增速 20.97%）；另有「超 ¥3,500 亿」的笼统说法。差别在统计口径（是否含咖啡、是否含现制冰淇淋）。

iiMedia: ¥354.72bn (new-style tea, +6.4%). CIC/AskCI: ¥312.7bn (freshly made tea, +20.97%). Others say "over ¥350bn." The gap is definitional — whether coffee and ice cream are included.

怎么答：明确说出你用的是哪个来源、哪个口径。别说「大约 3500 亿」然后被追问来源。

How to answer: name the source and the definition. Never say "about ¥350bn" and then get asked where it came from.

红旗 2Flag 2净利率不能跨模式直接比Net margins are not comparable across models

蜜雪 17.9% 是总部口径（卖货给加盟商），奈雪 −18.7% 是门店口径（自己开店）。严格说这是两种不同的会计主体。

Mixue's 17.9% is head-office level (selling to franchisees); Nayuki's −18.7% is store level. Strictly, these are two different accounting entities.

怎么答：「正因为口径不同才说明问题——一家不用扛房租，一家必须扛。」主动说明口径 = 加分；被问出来 = 扣分。

How to answer: "The different bases are the point — one never touches rent, the other must." Volunteering the caveat earns marks; being caught out loses them.

红旗 3Flag 3成本结构是行业估算，不是审计数据The cost split is an estimate, not audited data

「物料 30%、房租 20–25%、人工 15–20%」来自行业通用模型与媒体测算，没有任何一家公司披露过单杯成本明细。

"Ingredients 30%, rent 20–25%, labour 15–20%" comes from industry models and press estimates. No company discloses per-cup cost breakdowns.

怎么答：上台时就说「这是行业通用估算」。这句话一秒钟，但它把「严谨性」这一项保住了。

How to answer: say "this is an industry-wide estimate" on stage. One second of speech, and it protects the rigour criterion.

红旗 4Flag 4加盟费数字各家说法差异巨大Franchise-cost figures vary wildly

网上关于「开一家蜜雪要多少钱」从 19.68 万到 45 万都有，因为有些人只算硬性投入、有些人含房租押金和流动资金。不要引用具体加盟金额，除非你能标出来源。

Published totals for opening a Mixue range from ¥196.8k to ¥450k — some count only hard costs, others include rent deposits and working capital. Do not quote a specific figure unless you can cite it.

怎么答：用「二十万到四十万区间」这种表述，安全且不失专业。

How to answer: say "somewhere between ¥200k and ¥400k." Safe and still professional.

最后一条，也是最容易被忽视的：The last one, most often missed: 不要把「奈雪亏损」讲成「奈雪做得差」。它的亏损很大一部分来自主动关店、资产减值和高端需求收缩——这是行业结构变化的证据，不是经营能力的嘲讽。讲成后者，会显得刻薄且不专业，评委会扣分。正确表述是：「在同一场价格带下移里，自营模式承受了更大的压力。」 Never frame Nayuki's loss as "Nayuki is bad at this." Much of it comes from deliberate store closures, asset impairment, and shrinking premium demand — evidence of a structural shift, not a verdict on management. Framing it the other way reads as cheap and unprofessional, and it costs marks. Say instead: "as the price band moved down, the company-owned model absorbed more of the pressure."
11

时间倒推：距展示还有多少天

Timeline: Counting Back from the Presentation

今天 2026-10-25，展示日 11/11 与 11/18。先按 11/11 排——假设我们被分在第一周，排早了不吃亏，排晚了必翻车。日期格留空，讨论时填。
Today is 25 Oct 2026; presentations are 11 and 18 Nov. Plan for 11 Nov — assume we are in week one. Planning early costs nothing; planning late loses the game. Fill the dates in during the meeting.
10/25
今天 · 第 1 次讨论Today · Meeting 1
定选题占位、分三幕、定视频方案与拍摄日。散会前把分工表拍照发群里。今晚各自把自己那一幕的资料先扫一遍。
Lock the topic, split the acts, choose the video and fix the shoot day. Photograph the roles sheet and post it in the group before leaving. Tonight, skim your own act's material.
10/26–10/28
3 天3 days
拍视频。越早越好——它是唯一受天气、店铺营业时间、店员配合度影响的环节。拍完当天粗剪一版。
Shoot the video. As early as possible — it is the only part hostage to weather, opening hours, and staff cooperation. Rough-cut it the same day.
10/29–11/03
6 天6 days
核心视觉定稿。成本解剖图先出矢量稿，投到投影上实测后排能不能看清。同时三人各自写完自己那一幕的口播稿（中文写，英语说——不要先写英文献丑）。
Finalise the centerpiece. Draft the cost-anatomy vector and project it to test back-row legibility. In parallel, each of you writes your act's script (write in Chinese, speak in English — do not draft in English first and stumble).
11/04–11/06
3 天3 days
第 2 次合练（重要）。三人连着走三遍，用秒表卡 8 分钟。第一遍一定会超时 2–3 分钟，这是正常的，砍内容而不是加速念。
Rehearsal 2 (critical). Run the full thing three times with a stopwatch. The first run always overruns by 2–3 minutes — that is normal. Cut content; never speed up delivery.
11/07–11/09
3 天3 days
信息图定稿并打印。A4 彩色 8 份。同一天完成「PPT + 视频在教室电脑上试播」这个动作，不要留到最后一天。
Finalise and print the infographic. Eight A4 colour copies. Test the deck and video on the classroom machine the same day — do not leave it to the last day.
11/10
前 1 天Day before
只做三件事：① 最后一遍脱稿走位（不看 PPT 也要能说完）；② 备好道具（透明杯、吸管、分层饮料提前做好冷藏）；③ 早睡。前一晚改稿 = 第二天念稿。
Three things only: ① one final run without slides (you must be able to finish with a blank screen); ② pack the props (clear cup, straws, layered drink made and chilled ahead); ③ sleep. Editing the night before means reading the next day.
11/11
展示日 APresentation A
提前 20 分钟到教室，把 PPT 拷到教室电脑并全屏试放一遍。讲完立刻把信息图交给讲师。
Arrive 20 minutes early, copy the deck onto the classroom machine and run it full-screen once. Hand the infographic over the moment you finish.
11/18
展示日 B · 兜底Presentation B · fallback
如果被排到第二周，多出的 7 天不要用来加内容，用来把同一版练到能不看稿、不超时、三个人交接无缝。
If you land in week two, do not use the extra seven days to add content. Use them to drill the same version until it runs without notes, without overrun, and with seamless handoffs.
12

来源清单：每一个数字的出处

Sources: Where Every Number Comes From

评分要求「accurate content from credible sources, cited」，并点名了 UN / WHO / 政府统计 / 公司报告 / 技术文献这几类。我们全部落在「上市公司年报与招股书」这一类，是可核查性最高的一档。登台前每一条都要自己打开原文再看一遍。
The rubric asks for "accurate content from credible sources, cited" and names UN / WHO / government statistics / company reports / technical references. Everything here sits in the listed-company filings and prospectus tier — the most verifiable class available. Open every original once more before you go on stage.
数据Figure 来源Source 用在哪一幕Which act
蜜雪 2024 营收 248.29 亿、净利 44.54 亿、毛利率 32.5%、门店 46,479 Mixue FY2024: revenue ¥24.829bn, net profit ¥4.454bn, gross margin 32.5%, 46,479 stores 蜜雪集团 2024 年度业绩公告Mixue Group FY2024 results announcement (26 Mar 2025) III
蜜雪 97.6% 收入来自商品与设备销售，加盟及服务仅 2.4% 97.6% of Mixue revenue from goods & equipment; franchise services only 2.4% 蜜雪招股书口径；2024 前三季商品与设备收入 182.2 亿Mixue prospectus basis; Q1–Q3 2024 goods & equipment ¥18.22bn III
蜜雪 2025 上半年营收 148.75 亿、净利 27.2 亿、门店 53,014 Mixue H1 2025: revenue ¥14.875bn, net profit ¥2.72bn, 53,014 stores 蜜雪集团 2025 中期业绩公告Mixue Group H1 2025 interim results (27 Aug 2025) III
霸王茶姬 2024 营收 124.05 亿、净利 25.15 亿、GMV 295 亿、门店 6,440、单店月均 GMV 51.2 万、91% GMV 来自原叶鲜奶茶、库存周转 5.3 天 Chagee FY2024: revenue ¥12.405bn, net profit ¥2.515bn, GMV ¥29.5bn, 6,440 stores, ¥512k monthly GMV per store, 91% of GMV from tea latte, 5.3-day inventory turns 霸王茶姬招股书（2025-03-26 递交 SEC）Chagee prospectus filed with the SEC, 26 Mar 2025 III
古茗 2024 营收 87.91 亿、净利 14.93 亿、门店 9,914 Guming FY2024: revenue ¥8.791bn, net profit ¥1.493bn, 9,914 stores 古茗 2024 年度业绩公告Guming FY2024 results announcement III
茶百道 2024 营收 49.18 亿（−13.8%）、净利 4.72 亿（−58.6%） ChaPanda FY2024: revenue ¥4.918bn (−13.8%), net profit ¥472m (−58.6%) 茶百道 2024 年度业绩公告ChaPanda FY2024 results announcement III
奈雪 2024 营收 49.21 亿（−4.7%）、净亏 9.19 亿、门店 1,798（直营 1,453 + 加盟 345）、客单价 29.6→26.7 元、日均订单 344.3→270.5、材料成本占比 36.76%、员工成本占比 29.16% Nayuki FY2024: revenue ¥4.921bn (−4.7%), net loss ¥919m, 1,798 stores (1,453 owned + 345 franchised), ticket ¥29.6→26.7, daily orders 344.3→270.5, materials 36.76% of revenue, staff costs 29.16% 奈雪的茶 2024 年度业绩公告Nayuki FY2024 results announcement II · III
行业规模 2024 年 ¥3,547.2 亿（新式茶饮），增速降至 6.4% Market size 2024: ¥354.72bn (new-style tea), growth slowing to 6.4% 艾媒咨询《2024–2025 年中国新式茶饮行业发展现状与消费趋势调查分析报告》iiMedia Research, 2024–25 China new-style tea industry report I
现制茶饮规模 2024 年 ¥3,127 亿，增速 20.97% Freshly-made tea market 2024: ¥312.7bn, +20.97% 中商产业研究院《2025–2030 年中国现制茶饮深度分析及发展前景研究预测报告》AskCI Consulting, 2025–30 China freshly-made tea report
备选口径（见 Flag 1）Alternative definition — see Flag 1		 I
高端价格带（¥25+）占比持续下滑，¥10–15 成主流；蜜雪人均消费 ¥7.27 Premium band (¥25+) share in continuous decline; ¥10–15 now mainstream; Mixue average ticket ¥7.27 华安证券研报Hua'an Securities research note II
单杯成本结构：物料 30% / 房租 20–25% / 人工 15–20% / 水电与平台 5–10% / 净利 10–15% Per-cup cost structure: ingredients 30% / rent 20–25% / labour 15–20% / utilities + platform 5–10% / net 10–15% 行业通用估算（多家行业媒体与加盟测算交叉核对），非审计数据
Industry-wide estimate cross-checked across trade press and franchise models — not audited data		 II
外卖平台抽成可达 20–25%，可超过房租 Delivery platforms take up to 20–25% — potentially more than rent 行业媒体测算（同属估算，口播需注明）
Trade-press estimate (same caveat applies on stage)		 II
登台前的最后一道检查（三步，十分钟）：Final check before going on stage (three steps, ten minutes):
  • 打开原文。把上面每一个链接/公告重新打开一次，确认数字没记错。年报里「亿元」和「十亿元」是最容易看错的地方。
  • 对齐口播与画面。口播说的数字和 PPT 上写的数字必须完全一致。差一位数就够被质疑。
  • 念一遍口径说明。三句话：成本结构是行业估算、净利率是不同口径、市场规模有多个口径。念顺了再上台。
  • Open the originals. Reopen every filing above and re-confirm each figure. "Hundred million" vs "billion" is the most common misread in annual reports.
  • Align speech with screen. The number you say and the number on the slide must match exactly. One digit off invites challenge.
  • Rehearse the three caveats. Cost structure is an industry estimate; margins use different bases; market size has multiple definitions. Get them fluent before you walk up.